Contagion In The CDS Market

Working Papers – Office of Financial Research

Contagion in the CDS Market

This paper assesses the risk of contagion in the credit default swap (CDS) market. This risk emerges through the inability of CDS counterparties to make payments during systemic stress. The authors find that the central counterparty contributes significantly less to network contagion than do several peripheral firms that are large net sellers of CDS protection.

Abstract:

This paper analyzes counterparty exposures in the credit default swaps market and examines the impact of severe credit shocks on the demand for variation margin, which are the payments that counterparties make to offset price changes. We employ the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) shocks and estimate their impact on the value of CDS contracts and the variation margin owed. Large and sudden demands for variation margin may exceed a firm’s ability to pay, leading some firms to delay or forego payments. These shortfalls can become amplified through the network of exposures. Of particular importance in cleared markets is the potential impact on the central counterparty clearing house. Although a central node according to conventional measures of network centrality, the CCP contributes less to contagion than do several peripheral firms that are large net sellers of CDS protection. During a credit shock these firms can suffer large shortfalls that lead to further shortfalls for their counterparties, amplifying the initial shock.

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Mike Dodd

I have a wide range of views and opinions. I have worked in a number of industries some of them are: Banking, Dairy, Health Insurance, Education and Government. I am the owner and editor in charge of a number of websites and message boards. The crown jewel of the websites is WaveChronicle.com which covers a wide variety of content. The Wave Chronicle is a site built to put forth thought provoking information, which can range from activism, politics, technology, philosophy, climate change, education, futurist / transhumanist theory and some fun articles that tend to be on the conspiracy theory side. Finally, I am also an accomplished no limit holdem poker player who sadly does not see enough time at a poker table.

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About Mike Dodd 231 Articles
I have a wide range of views and opinions. I have worked in a number of industries some of them are: Banking, Dairy, Health Insurance, Education and Government. I am the owner and editor in charge of a number of websites and message boards. The crown jewel of the websites is WaveChronicle.com which covers a wide variety of content. The Wave Chronicle is a site built to put forth thought provoking information, which can range from activism, politics, technology, philosophy, climate change, education, futurist / transhumanist theory and some fun articles that tend to be on the conspiracy theory side. Finally, I am also an accomplished no limit holdem poker player who sadly does not see enough time at a poker table.

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